Has Silver Reversed Back Into a Bear Market?

Notwithstanding the fact that spot Silver is down 20% off of its July high at $21.17, my bigger picture pattern and momentum work argue strongly that current weakness is an intervening correction between two major, recovery-rally uplegs after the completion of the 2011 - 2015 bear phase.

If my work proves reasonably accurate, then current weakness should find support in and around $17.00-$16.50, within the year-long base formation, prior to turning up into a second intermediate-term recovery advance that will revisit and hurdle $21.17 in route to a $24 to $26 target zone.

In that all of the action from mid-2014 to present is part of a still-developing base formation after the decline from the $49.91 high in April 2011, current weakness likely represents severe long liquidation to remove all but the deepest-pocketed longs amid a developing bullish vacuum.

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