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Has the Nov 16 Rally Ended?


The condensed version of my 4-hour chart of the e-SPZ (e-mini S&P 500) shows all of the highs in the index going back to the high at 1468 on Sept 14.

Let's notice that the rally off of the Nov 16 low is nearing a full-fledged test of the Nov 7 high at 1431.75.

Today's strange pre-open spike to a new post of the Nov 16 high at 1424 was not confirmed by my momentum gauge.

It also looks like it represents a failed spike out of a small rising-wedge formation that, so far, has left behind a bull trap.

It has the combination of which is warning "buyer beware" unless, and until, today's high at 1424.00 is hurdled prior to a decline that breaks 1409.75.

Should the latter, prior pivot low give way first, my near-term work will become extremely toppy, and will point the index towards a test of its Nov16 support line, now at 1400.

If such a scenario unfolds, my work will argue that the entire Nov-Dec recovery rally is complete, and that the dominant "downtrend" off of the Sept high is reasserting itself.

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