Mike's Mid Day Minute is available to members on Monday, Wednesday & Friday evenings, with one article per week available to non-members. Members please login and see "Mike's Mid Day Minute" in the navigation menu towards the top of the page.

Has the Upmove in Longer-Term YIELD Run its Course?


The most recent Daily Sentiment Reading (DSI) for Bonds is 12!

Purely from a technical perspective, it is not usually a coincidence that the DSI of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) (the inverse of TBT) presses into extreme oversold condition right about the time the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)) hits its optimal upside target off of its June-Sept base formation and also challenges the horizontal 200-Day EMA, now at 35.06.

Last Thursday’s high at 35.07 tested, but was not able to hurdle the 200-Day EMA.

TBT has backed away from the EMA amid the oversold condition in Bonds, and despite last Friday's first estimate of Q3 GDP (+2.9%).

At this juncture, my sense is that a counter-trend rally in TBT (upmove in YIELD) is nearing exhaustion-- at least for the near-term period-- which might just extend into next week's presidential election.

Bottom line: My sense is that the U.S. economy is increasingly vulnerable to a recession, and/or a flight to safety into, and immediately after, the election, especially if the Fed makes a dreadful policy error.

  • Action-Oriented Trade Set-Ups in Stocks & ETFs
  • Macro Analysis of the Broader Markets
  • Detailed Technical Guidance for each Trading Idea
  • Live Interaction w/ Mike & Our Member Community
  • And Much, Much More!
Join Now! - Special Offer!
Veteran Wall Street analyst and financial author, Mike provides detailed and timely analysis and trade set-ups on a range of markets. Read more...

Have Mike's “Out Front” morning analysis delivered FREE to your email inbox twice weekly!