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Has the Yen Started a New Downleg?


So far, the action off of the May 22 high in USD/YSD is following my preferred price path relatively closely, which called for the conclusion of the correction off of 103.70 in the 93.75-92.25 target zone.

Last Friday's low at 93.79 followed by a strong upside reversal to today's high at 95.76 has the right look of the end of the decline and the start of a new upleg.

That said, should we expect a powerful new upleg that rockets USD/YEN above 103.70 towards my next optimal target zone of 107 to 110, or a back and forth type of move that carves out a 6 or 7 big figure range for several weeks ahead of a thrust to new highs?

Right now, I really don't know, but the reaction to Wednesday's FOMC announcement might provide us with valuable clues about the forthcoming path of USD/YEN.

In any case, my near-term work points to 97.50-99.50 prior to more technical information about the underlying strength of the upmove off of last Friday's low. ETF traders may want to watch the ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS).

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