Important Close Ahead Today for SPX

The S&P 500's down-gap from Aug 15 at 1684.83 has been filled. Now the question is whether or not the gap-fill is significant to the bulls or the bears?

If it is significantly bullish, it will be because the SPX sustains above the gap area, which will argue for still-higher prices to 1693-1698, possibly on the way to a full-fledged retest of the Aug 2 all-time high at 1709.67.

Conversely, if the gap-fill is important to the bears, it will be because after the SPX filled the gap, it failed to sustain above 1685 roughly, and instead reversed lower into a sell-off that gains momentum late in today's session.

The latter scenario will renew some confidence that the upmove off of the Aug 28 low represents a recovery rally, while the former scenario will increase the likelihood that the Aug 28 low ended a correction, and that a new upleg has been in progress.

The last two hours of trading should provide us with valuable information about the underlying dominant-trend direction.