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Is BBRY Real or Memorex?


Purely from an intermediate-term technical perspective, and giving the benefit of the doubt for now that BlackBerry (BBRY) has a product, and a viable business, and can or will compete in the future... well... for starters, I could not be short the stock any longer-- not in the aftermath of the upside thrust off of the Dec 10 low at 5.44 to today's high at 7.75 (+42%).

My pattern work argues that BBRY thrust above key near-term resistance today at 6.75, which "locked-in" all of the action since July as a falling-wedge formation, and indicates strongly that the stock established a very significant low at 5.44.

In fact, if for some reason BBRY manages to claw its way above 8.50-9.60 to take out prior resistance and its declining 200-day EMA, then my intermediate-term work will start to indicate that 5.44 represented a secondary low of a larger, and potentially very significant double bottom with the Sept 25, 2012 low at 6.25.

That said, for such a scenario to unfold, perceptions of BBRY's mortality must change 180 degrees.

Right now, however, most likely all that is going on is an oversold bounce that the momentum traders have embraced "for kicks and giggles" into the end of the year.

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