My technical perceptions of the coal market argue that the action over the past 6 months represents a base pattern that is on the verge of upside breakout at 26.20/30, which could be construed as anticipation of a Romney victory.
Romney continually mentions reducing regulations on the coal industry to help get the US moving economically, with new jobs, as well as to reach energy independence faster than otherwise.
Such a scenario points to a 20%-35% appreciation in the Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) in the post-election period. Let's notice that the Romney scenario, however, is dwarfed by a much larger topping pattern (in RED) that has been unfolding since late-2009.
Notice that it resembles a huge head-and-shoulders top formation that violated its 3-year "neckline" in Apr-May 2012, and which projects much lower coal prices that should revisit the 2008 low under 10.00.
The minor Romney base could merely represent a pause within an otherwise very bearish intermediate-term technical set-up for coal and also could be anticipating an Obama victory.
The President has made no secret of his dislike of "dirty coal," which likely will continue into 2016.
If I overlap my technical work on the electoral college, then an upside breakout for coal likely is telling us that PA and OH are going to break for Romney.
Purely from a technical perspective, as of this moment, my pattern and momentum work favor upside continuation for coal beyond 26.20/30 towards 31.00.
Does that mean ROMNEY wins? Who knows? But it IS something to consider.