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Is the VIX Breaking Out of Downtrend?


The two most conspicuous technical "events" on the enclosed chart are, firstly, that the S&P 500 has violated and followed through from its June-Oct 2012 up trendline, and, secondly, that the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX) has hurdled and so far sustained above both its Oct 2011 down trendline and its flattening 200-day EMA.

The last time this happened from mid-May into the first week of June 2012, the VIX climbed from 21.75 to 27.73 (+27%).

In that the VIX technical set-up is more combustible now, my sense is that the VIX is heading to 30.00-32.50 (minimum) this time around.

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