Apart from the reasons why the iShares MSCI Germany (EWG) has negatively diverged from the still, very bullish price trajectory of the SPY since mid-June, the question now is whether the relative weakness in the EWG is warning global-equity investors that the party is over?
After all, the EWG has rolled over despite recent overtures by the Draghi ECB about the implementation of more aggressive monetary stimulus-policy prescriptions (QE-type liquidity infusion), designed to stimulate growth, thwart deflation, and to instill confidence.
Apparently, it is not enough to lift the EWG, or to prevent it from rolling over from its upper-channel line to beneath both its flat 200-day EMA right to a test of its lower, 2-year channel-support boundary, now at 29.75.
In fact, we can make the case that all of 2014 represents a topping process for the German market ETF, which is quite a contrast to the series of higher-highs evident on the SPY chart.
In that the negative divergence between the EWG and the SPY appears to be getting more acute, my sense is that it is the SPY that is vulnerable to the adjustment process, that is to say, to weakness that eliminates the divergence in the weeks directly ahead as the differences in central-bank monetary policies, as well as perceived and real economic growth prospects become more pronounced.