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Looking for Bottoms in Oil & Gas


If I totally was isolated from any news today, and all I had at my disposal was the enclosed 4-hr chart of nearby NYMEX Oil, the analysis argues that a correction from the March 1 high at 110.55 is at or nearly completed into this morning's low at 103.78.

If accurate, this means that a new upleg is nearing that should propel oil to 114-116. At this juncture, only a decline that breaks and sustains beneath today's low will point the price structure towards a full-fledged test of the October 2011 up trendline, now at 102.30.

For the past week, nearby natural gas has carved out either a sideways or a bottoming pattern. Either or? Yes, to confirm that it is a bottom pattern, the price structure must hurdle and sustain above 2.335-2.345.

Otherwise, at some point sooner or later disappointed longs with bail, sending prices to test and likely break the lows again.

For the time being, however, the basing pattern is my preferred interpretation of the price action.

ETF traders should keep an eye on the U.S. Oil Trust ETF (USO) as well as the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) and ProShares Ultra DJ UBS Natural Gas (BOIL).

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