Market Analysis for Apr 13th, 2005

Well, if someone had told me late yesterday that after 4 hours of trading today, the e-SPM would be 15 opoints under Tuesday's high, I would have said, "not likely!" But here we are are at 1179. On the enclosed hourly chart, notice that ALL of the action since mid-March amounts to multiple traverses of the range between 1194 and 1173 (roughly). Along the lower support line, we have a series of critical rising lows, which if breached, will argue that the counter- trend rally phase (that I thought required one more upleg to 1204-1212 to complete) is over, and a new very vicious new downleg already is in progress-- on the way to 1140 next. Until such a break of yesterday's low at 1173.00 occurs, my main scenario remains constructive- for another loop to the upside that hurdles 1195.75 into the 1204+ target zone prior to the reassertion of the dominant downtrend. MJP 04/13/05 2:05 PM ET (1179.50)

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