Market Analysis for Apr 5th, 2004

Nearing Final Thrust in Upmove

By Mike Paulenoff,

If ever there was the beginning of a slow holiday week, we have it today. The indices from a net change perspective are marginally up on the day, but they've been there pretty much the entire session after an overnight period where they were mostly lower. So, as soon as the market saw the light of day pre-opening, it went into positive territory.

But what's most interesting are the patterns that have been carved out after Friday's employment spike to new recovery highs. Specifically in the E-mini June S&P we've been trading between 1145 and 1136 roughly since Friday afternoon, and right now the index is trading at 1143 ,, pretty much right at the highs in what looks like to me as a sideways bullish congestion area which should pop to new highs. The question is how much higher.

Friday's high was 1145, so from a technical perspective anything above 1145 will give us a new high, and my work is telling me that that new high will not be confirmed by the underlying momentum data. So we need to be very careful at new highs.

Even though the projection is for 1149 to 1152, anything above 1145-45

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