Market Analysis for Aug 12th, 2005

Although this day seems to be creeping along, the final 90 minutes or so could prove to be extremely important as we near the end of the week. The current bounce off of 1227.50 to 1231.50 in the E-mini S&P does not impress us as the start of a meaningful, sustainable upleg (athough if programs kick in, the move could be potent, be will fail to sustain). Rallies into the 1231- 1234 area will not disrupt the developing, dominant near term bear trend. Only a rally that hurdles 1237 will argue that the larger range from 1225 roughly to 1248 remains the dominant force in the market. For now, we remain 25% short. MJP 08/12/05 2:30 PM ET 1231

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