Market Analysis for Dec 21st, 2004

The Qs just keep grinding higher today in what my work argues is a recovery rally within a larger topping formation. As long as the series of lower highs off the 12/15 high at 40.68 remains intact, the overall bearish near-term chart structure will remain the dominant feature of the Qs. At this juncture, only a sustained rally above 39.80 will neutralize my still-negative near-term technical outlook. Inability of the Qs to hurdle 39.80 in the upcoming hour(s) followed by a decline below 39.45 will be initial signal that today's recovery bounce is over, and that the dominant downside price pressures have started to reassert themselves, for a run at the 38.50 next optimal target zone.

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