Market Analysis for Dec 9th, 2004

Since this AM's low at 1173.50 (1175.75 E-SPH), the E-SPZ has reversed with a vengeance (what a surprise) after "apparently" ending the downleg from last Friday's high at 1198.50 (1200.75). The sharp recovery rally has recovered into the 1185.75 (1187.75) area, which approximates an exact 50% retracement of the Fri.-Thurs. decline- and which SHOULD provide some "natural" resistance to the rally. In addition, the nearest term trendline off of last Friday's high crosses the price axis this PM at 1187.50/75 (1188.50/75), which also should provide a "natural" impediment to upside continuation later today. From my perspective, the decline from Fri.'s high into this AM's low carved-out a very bearish downleg pattern, which WARNS us that after this "intervening rally" is complete, another potent downleg should emerge that presses the index below 1173-1170 into the 1165 next target zone.

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