Market Analysis for Jan 6th, 2004

Still No Selling Pressure
By Mike Paulenoff,

The indices are certainly unchanged and they've been there all day. That's no surprise because there's absolutely no selling pressure -- but it's a surprise because the market went straight up from Friday's late session sell-off. In the E-Mini March S&P, the index went from 1103 and change to 1121 and change, and even after that move the index right now is just under 1119, so there's really no selling pressure. The indices are hovering and circling right around the highs of the entire December-January advance.

To put that into perpective, that advance went from 1051 to 1121, and here we are at 1119 or so, and where are the sellers? We haven't seen any real sellers since mid-December when Saddam Hussein was captured, and the market sold the news, and you had about a 20-point decline in the indices.

But for now despite the overbought, unconfirmed highs we have right now on a technical near-term basis, there's just no pressure. Until the pressure picks up, while the upside may not take off again the bears certainly aren't having any impact at all, what few bears there are intraday.

So right now, from a technical perspective, while the technicals say we should move lower this afternoon and retest this morning's pullback low at 1115 , and likely break that and move into the 1112-1111 area, right now the market is stuck at 1119. So we'll have to see what happens.

If no sellers come in at all, the market will probably take it and probe again 1121, if not higher. A break above 1121-22 takes you to 1125, the next objective.

As far as the QQQs go, they're at 37.13, off a high yesterday and a test of that high this morning at 37.21. So the Qs are stuck in a very high-level range as well -- 37.20 on the high side and 36.95 on the low side, and right now as we speak as mentioned they're at 37.13. So you can see that just like the indices the Qs are holding up extremely well, and there's just no selling pressure. Even on a decline, the selling pressure evaporates.

To get anything going on the downside, the Qs will have to break 36.95, which is this morning's pullback low, which should take it down to 36.80-.75. That's a pretty key area. If the Qs manage to get down to 36.70, then they will continue and test very important trendline and gap area lows at 36.50.

But there is no selling pressure at the moment. If buyers come in and take the Qs up due to the lack of selling pressure and move above 37.21, then we expect a minimum 37.27 and an optimal move up to 37.32-.40. That should suffice to be another non-confirmed high in the Qs.

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