Market Analysis for Jun 8th, 2004

Just One More Thrust Left
By Mike Paulenoff,

What we have here is another case where you have very quiet markets, which means there are no sellers, so the indices are right near yesterday's highs. They just in fact went positive after being in negative territory for the entire session up to this point.

In the E-mini June S&P yesterday's high was 1142.75, and my work argues that the pullback today to 1135.50 was the extent of a minor correction within the upleg that started at last Thursday's low at 1115.

My work suggests we'll take out the high at 1142 in the E-mini June S&P and continue on to somewhere around 1145-47 for a target for this move. At that point, my work is suggesting that the upleg from last Thursday is over, and perhaps the upleg from the lows of mid-May at 1075 and change is also over.

At this point, only a move below 1135 would start to compromise the uptrend, and beyond that you need a move below 1131 to get more serious signals that the upmove is over.

As far as the QQQs go, the Qs had a very shallow correction from yesterday's high at 37.10 to 36.85 and have been stair-stepping higher since the mid-morning pullback at 36.85 and are right at the highs from yesterday as we speak.

My work suggests there is one more thrust left to the 37.30-.50 target zone to end the move that started after last Thursday's low at 35.85, and perhaps we'll also get big non-confirmation signals at 37.30-.50 that the entire upmove from the May 17 at 34.11 also is complete.

So on the one hand there are no sellers; on the other hand, buying power is diminishing rapidly, and there is one more move of 20-30 cents that should end the current upmove.

A move back below 36.85 would be our first indication that the upmove is running out of gas. But you really need a move below 36.70 to trigger additional signals that would confirm that the upmove, at least from last Thursday, is over and possibly the upmove from mid-May is over as well.

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