Market Analysis for Mar 16th, 2005

Notice on the enclosed hourly chart, that the decline in the E-mini June S&P from yest.'s recovery high at 1216.25 has traversed the March (down-slanted) price channel to the lower "support" line near 1191.00. So far, today's low is 1192, which appears to be containing the selling pressure just above the lower channel support coordinate. Is the 1192-1191 area THE place to enter counter-trend (long) positions ahead of a recovery bounce? Maybe... but my work argues that IF a recovery rally materializes- and propels the index to 1197-1199, the pattern indicates that another downleg should emerge that drives the index to yet another new reaction low-- into the 1190-1188 target zone. So, at this point, my sense is to stay away from the long side, and to anticipate an opportunity for re-entry into the short side during the Noon-time lull. MJP 03/16/05 11:45 AM ET (1194.25)

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