Market Analysis for Mar 21st, 2005

The E-mini June S&P has pivoted off of this AM's new reaction low at 1182.50, and already has popped about 8 points, in what my work argues is an oversold, but counter-trend rally effort, which when complete, should resolve itself in another powerful downleg towards 1160-1140. For my purposes then, this move is a set-up for a new short position. The only question is where? For the time being, and at the risk of annoying some of you who want to participate in such a move, I will watch from the sidelines for a while longer-- with the intention of re-entering short positions (in the direction of the underlying trend). At this juncture, only continued strength that hurdles resistance at 1193, and again at 1198 will argue that the magnitude of the recovery process could be greater than I envision at this time. MJP 03/21/05 12: 25 PM ET (1189.50)

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