Market Analysis for Mar 9th, 2004

Very interesting session so far in that in overnight trading the indices rallied a bit, up 3-4 points in both indices, and then by the time the opening bell sounded they were actually unchanged. Then they actually fell to new lows for the most recent downmoves that started last Friday.

The most important move, though, is in the E-mini March S&P, because yesterday it broke through Friday's low at 1147 but held last Wednesday's low at 1143.75. The overnight move gave way, and since that overnight rally to 1147 the E-mini March S&P has declined to a new low for this move below last Wednesday's low, today's low being 1138.50 so far.

The interesting thing about the action after the low was established this morning is that the rallies are definitely feeble. The E-mini March S&P has not been able to get back above a prior rally peak. They had one attempt to get through 1145, but it didn't work, and now we're sitting at 1140 ,, just 2 points above the low for the day.

With about 2 , hours left in the trading session, if no rally can materialize before the last hour then I think the bears will try to press the downside in the final hour into the closing bell. If 1138.50 is broken, then I think we'll see a full-fledged test of the February 24 low of 1133