Market Analysis for May 11th, 2004

Countertrend Rally Within Dominant Bear Trend
By Mike Paulenoff,

Today as yesterday we'll look at the markets towards the close of trading, turning what is typically a Mid-Day Minute into a Closing Minute.

Our work continues to warn us that all the upside action from yesterday's low at 1078 in the E-mini June S&P into today's high at 1095 so far represents a countertrend rally within the dominant bear trend. Once this rally is complete we expect the E-mini June S&P to plunge into the 1060/50 next target zone.

As for the E-mini June Nasdaq, although we can still see one more pop into new recovery high ground for the current rally above 1424, our overall work continues to warn us that all of this action represents a countertrend move prior to another plunge to new lows on the way to test critical intermediate-term support at 1365.

Moving over to the Qs, the QQQs remained bid all day in their effort to recover from last week's smash to the downside. Although we would not be surprised to see the Qs pop to test resistance at 35.50/.60, our work argues, nonetheless, that all the action from yesterday's low at 34.42 represents a countertrend rally prior to another plunge towards 34.

Back again at mid-day tomorrow!

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