Market Analysis for Nov 16th, 2004

The most salient feature of the QQQ hourly chart is the fact that the decline from yesterday's high at 38.86 into this AM's low at 38.32 managed to hold right at the Oct.-Nov. trendline, which thus far, has provided the price point for a rally back to 38.60. My near term work indicates that the decline from 38.86 to 38.32 represents ONLY the first leg of a more complex correction. When the current recovery bounce runs its course, my work points to another loop to the downside that breaks 38.30 on the way to a 37.80-37.60. For now, we remain 50% short, looking for the Qs to conclude this rally in the 38.60/70 resistance area.

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