Market Analysis for Nov 16th, 2005

What a difference a day makes. In the past few hours, since the energy stats were released, prices have rebounded from new reaction lows at $56.70, to $58.25. In the next 70 minutes, if crude prices continue to rally and close above $58.40, then today's action will be considered a key upside reversal-- which IS a signal that the decline from the Katrina high at $70.85 has hit its first significant low within the beginning of a base building period. Inability of crude to close above $58.40 will leave us with a weaker reversal signal, one that usually ushers-in a recovery rally ahead of another downleg. In any case, right now it appears that crude has found some sort of meaningful near term low at $56.70. Any rally effort will hit resistance at the 200 DMA, now at $59.21. MJP 11/16/05 1:55 PM ET ($58.20)

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