Market Analysis for Nov 18th, 2005

Interesting situation here, and one that concerns anyone familiar with Dow Theory. Notice that the Transports have leaped to a new all-time high today, extending the powerful upmove off its Oct. low from 3,550 to 4,134. The equidistant measurement of the DJTA upmove from its March-Oct. coil pattern projects to 4,100, which was satisfied this morning, and which should represent completion of the upleg from the coil pattern. Based on my work, I would be taking profits in the Transports "up here." In contrast, notice that DJIA has NOT climbed the new highs like it did last March, when it CONFIRMED the new high in the Transports. As of this time, the Industrials remain about 200 points shy of confirming the Trannies, which is a bothersome non-confirmation of the major UP trend. Furthermore, while the DJTA satisfied its swing target out of the Mar.-Oct. bullish coil, the DJIA only has climbed 60% of the approximately 985 points needed for an equidistant thrust out of the coil. This too is a disconcerting sign of "Industrial weakness," and WARNS us that pressure in the Industrials that breaks 10,650 likely will represent a MAJOR SIGNAL THAT THE CURRENT ADVANCE IS OVER. MJP 11/18/05 12:40 PM ET DJIA: 10,701; DJTA: 4,119

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