Market Analysis for Nov 2nd, 2005

With oil prices under pressure and possibly headed to the mid to low 50's, perhaps the RETAIL SECTOR is on the verge of a serious uplift heading into the holiday season? Purely from a technical perspective, if the RTH can hurdle resistance in the 95-95.50 area, then expect upside acceleration to 97.00, which represents the 50% recovery level of the prior downmove, from the Stratmjp: Aug. high near 104 to the 90 low in Oct. A sustained hurdle of 97 will be extremely bullish, and will point to a run at 102-104. At this juncture, only a reversal of today's strength that breaks 93.50 will weaken the improving outlook. The heaviest weighting of a component of the RTH is WMT at 18.8%; the HD at 17.42%, both of which have very constructive chart patterns.

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