Market Analysis for Sep 16th, 2003

So far today the indices are higher. As I see it, the indices are in an extension of the low that was put in last Thursday and Friday. It's all part of the same upside correction -- or countertrend rally, if you will -- of the decline that began on the 8th or 9th of September (depending on which index you use) and ended last Thursday or Friday.

As of this moment, although it seems like we've been going up for several days, we just haven't been going down. In fact, the indices have recovered just about 40-45% of the prior down-move. So if you believe like I do that in the first week of September the indices started a sizeable correction, then this up-move that we've seen since last Thursday- Friday is just a normal recovery in an otherwise bearish situation.

Now, of course, in almost exactly two hours we get the Fed announcing its latest policy assessment for the U.S. economy and for interest rates, and while nobody expects rates to change -- that is, Fed funds to change from 1