Market Analysis for Sep 16th, 2005

OK ... Where to now? My work argues that the upmove from yest.'s low at 1230.75 to this AM's high at 1240.75 is the first upmove of a new upleg that will climb to test the recent high at 1251 on the way to test the 7/29 high at 1255.25. However, if the index fails on the next attempt to hurdle 1241-1242, and then pivots to the down- side, at that point I will begin to have my doubts about my current scenario. Purely from a technical perspective, only a break below 1230.75 (yest.'s low) will confirm that the bears are in control of near term market direction (and I will be pulling the rest of my hair out of my head by then). For now, we remain long. MJP 09/16/05 12:30 PM ET 1237.00

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