Market Analysis for Sep 20th, 2005

You know by now that the FOMC raised rates another 25 bps to 3.75%- the 11th hike since June 2004- and kept the "measured pace" language intact, which suggests that more rate hikes are forthcoming in the upcoming meetings. Since their statement was posted, the e-SPZ has nosedived from 1240 to 1234 to confront the near term support line off of the 9/15 low (1230.75)... which thus far, has contained the selling pressure-- and attracted buyers who have bounced the index to 1236 so far. As long as support between 1234 and 1233.25 contains forthcoming weakness, the triangle pattern will remain intact - and will still point to another potent upleg in the index to retest recent rally highs near 1250. However, a break of 1233.25 should trigger downside liquidation that presses the index to break 1230.75 on the way to 1224 and then 1218. For now, we will remain on the sidelines until the final hour of trading...

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