Market Analysis for Sep 21st, 2004

For today's Mid-Day Minute, Mike writes: Have a look at our updated daily 10 year T-Note YIELD chart, which my work argues is nearing a meaningful upside pivot reversal...The Street is pretty well convinced that the Fed will hike rates another 25 bps to 1.75% later today. This will be the 3rd hike since June 29th. Notice that despite the hikes (1.00% to 1.75%) that yield on the 10-year T-note has DECLINED from around 4.80% to 4.06% yesterday. Why? Relatively weak economic data, subdued inflationary data despite climbing oil prices, and investors' suspicions that the economic "soft-patch" may turn into a prolonged period of sluggish growth certainly have contributed to the decline in longer-term rates. HOWEVER, the yield chart is nearing a critical technical "support" area around 4%, which should contain additional yield softness, and provide the plateau from where the next yield recovery should emerge. If my work proves correct, then we should expect a pivot upside reversal from 4.06%-4.00% in the hours directly ahead, and a yield climb that confronts the Aug-Sept resistance line at 4.15%.

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