Market Analysis for Sep 7th, 2005

Here is the BIG picture of the e-SPU, which shows the "Katrina" upside reversal spike, as well as its predecessor reversal spikes from July 7th, May 13th, and April 18th- all of which form a potent series of higher-lows (juxtaposed against higher-highs) into the July 29th peak at 1248.75. The BIG question is whether or not the Katrina pivot low was the start of a new upleg-- to new highs above 1248.75? Righ now, my near term work argues that the rally off of 1194 is nearing completion in the 1236-1240 area. The subsequent pullback will provide us with clues about the underlying strength of the post-Katrina upleg. The ability of the index to hold support in the 1221-1218 area followed by a pivot to the upside will argue strongly for a run to new highs. A break below 1218 will argue that the Katrina rally should be labeled "recovery" within the development of a larger top formation. MJP 9/07/05 12:50 PM ET (1235)

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