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Medium-Term Treasury Yields Continue to Sink


With stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP, and firm Jobs data in the rearview mirror, 5- and 10-year Yield certainly have "moved on" apparently to more pressing matters (whatever they might be, such as disinflation or deflation perhaps), which is evident in the downward pressure on yield since the latest round of supposedly-improved economic data during the final week of July.

In fact, both 5- and 10-year Yield are pressing towards key support levels, at 1.55%- 1.53%, and at 2.40%-2.35%, which if violated and sustained, will argue that Yield is breaking down from otherwise constructive multi-month consolidation patterns.

Whether or not such a scenario will reflect a retrenchment in the economic fundamentals, a geopolitical rush to safety, or some technical shortage of supply, who knows?

Nonetheless, it will provide the Fed doves with more ammunition to maintain Zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) for still-longer than anyone suspects. Today's disappointing Retail Sales has Yield on the defensive, yet again.

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