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More Upside for S&P Prior to Corrective Weakness


I suspect that today's market is typical of pre-Thanksgiving holiday trading: positively biased, with little or no selling pressure... so far, anyway.

Every other hour, we get Bob Pisani from CNBC telling us how bullish the sentiment gauges have become lately, using an example such as the complacency exhibited by the VIX (under 10 for the first time in over a decade)...

We have been here before... the extreme overbought conditions, the very low and declining VIX, the sense that The Street is reaching for considerably more risky investments than it had in the past... a la 1999-2000...

I cannot argue with any of it... And yes, I think it will end badly at some point... really ugly...

But what about that liquidity arguement? When will all of the money be allocated? Is that time now? After Thanksgiving? After the end of this year?

I don't know... So far though, the bulls remain in control... and money continues to supply the upside fuel, especially in the technology sector. Rather than fighting it like I did during the supposedly negative seasonal part of the year (Sept.-Oct.), I will continue to go with it (in selective sectors and ETF's).

Let's take a look at the pattern of the SPY. With about two hours remaining in today's session, the SPY is up about $0.20 after having made new highs today at 140.74. The pattern off of the 11/3 pivot low at 136.20 still argues for the SPY's to claw into the 141.20/60 area next, prior to another period of corrective weakness. At this juncture, only a failure to hold 139.74 on any bout of selling pressure will begin to compromise the near-term uptrend.

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