NYMEX Crude Coiled Like a Spring?

NYMEX Oil is pushing up against key resistance between $108.50 and $109.32, which should be hurdled on the way into my optimal next target zone of $110.00-$114.40, from where I am expecting a significant downside reversal—in a normal volatile market environment.

That said, however, there is increasing geopolitical event risk in oil created by the prospect of an Egyptian civil war, which certainly is keeping a strong bid, and a growing "supply premium" in the market.

If the oil market morphs into a weather vane concerning a widening conflict in the Mid-East that compromises the accessibility of oil supplies, then we cannot rule out a wicked and damaging up-spike that challenges the July 2008 high at $147.27.

What then?

Maybe the strength in the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) and the precious metals is warning us, and is discounting some outlier event triggered by a chaos-producing spike in oil prices?