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NYMEX Crude Oil Breaking Down (Finally)?


The good news for us Oil Bears is that today’s early rally high at 101.32 came up shy of last Friday’s high of 101.63, and that rally was well shy of the Mar 28 high of 102.24.

In other words, NYMEX Oil is carving out a series of lower-highs since Mar 28, which tells us that the market is undergoing a distribution-type period, rather than accumulation.

The bad news is that I think NYMEX Oil should be considerably weaker, but, instead, remains resistant to sustained weakness, which could be a reflection of the still-high tensions regarding the Ukraine.

In any event, my work continues to tell me to stay short oil via my inverse long position in the ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO) unless, and until, nearby oil breaks above its recent declining highs line, as well as above key resistance at 102.00/30.

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