Nasdaq 100, QQQQ Downleg Likely Completed

The Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (NASDAQ: QQQQ), based on the pattern carved-out during the decline from last Monday's high at 45.47 to yesterday's low at 43.51, and from the behavior of the underlying hourly momentum oscillators, likely completed a downleg at 43.51 -- and now should embark on a recovery rally period that should propel the Q's back up to the 44.10/40 target zone in the upcoming hours (perhaps in reaction to the State of the Union message). More than anything else, however, the quality and quantity of this rally will tell us if the Q's started a major intermediate-term correction or if they ended a relatively minor pullback within the still-viable July-Jan uptrend.