Near-Term Peak in Apple

If we take the liberty to draw-in the aftermarket, post-earnings spike in Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) to a new all-time high at 99.48, followed by a plunge to 93.25 (close 93.99), notice what we are left with: A key downside reversal bar off of marginal new highs! The vast majority of the time, such a reversal spike signals a near term trend change, which in this case, would argue that AAPL has ended its most recent upleg off of the Dec. 27 pivot low at 76.77, and EITHER will carve out a sideways range (between 97.00 and 90.00 for instance) for the next 2-3 weeks, OR embark on a stair-step downside corrective process that points towards an 80 target zone. In both cases, the UP-trend will be transcended into either a sideways trend, or a near term corrective down-trend. Bottom Line: Although AAPL might attempt another rally, the overall technical picture argues that a significant near term peak has been established-- in the aftermath to the earnings news. MJP 01/18/07 9:10 AM ET 92.92, SPY 143.31; DIA 126.04; QQQQ 44.83
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