Oil Marches Higher - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2008

The viciousness with which the oil market pivots and reverses in both directions certainly is unnerving- at least to me, anyway. "The market" has totally bought into the idea that supplies are so tight that 500,000 bbls of Nigerian crude oil stuck in port, coupled with increased demand for diesel fuel from the Chinese earthquake region are reasons for nearby crude oil prices to climb from $123 to new all-time highs at $127 (3%) in about two hours of trading! Whether we believe those explanations or not really does not matter, because price means everything, and right now, price is on the march higher once again. As for the enclosed daily chart of the US Oil Trust (AMEX: USO), today's LOW at 99.98 becomes very important now, because it represents the pivot low prior to a climb to new all-time highs, which if broken on any subsequent decline, will stand out as a violation of critical near term technical support. Unless or until THAT happens, the bulls remain totally, and unequivocally in control of price direction.