Oil's Rally Fails - Market Analysis for Oct 1st, 2008

Crude oil prices are down about 7% from the intraday high and point towards a retest of the September lows at 93.36 and 90.50 next. Let's notice that yesterday's rally and today's initial attempt at extending yesterday's rally failed right at the sharply declining 20 DMA, which also represents the mid-point of the (width) of the declining Bollinger Bands. This is classic action: in a bull market, pullbacks find support at the rising 200 DMA, while in a bear market rallies fail and reverse to the downside from the declining 20 Day -- as is the case right now. I expect oil prices to plunge through the September lows on the way $80 next. Lower oil equates to a downside target of 70.00 in the US Oil Fund ETF (AMEX: USO).