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S&P 500 Cycle Points Lower


For virtually the entire period from late Nov 2011 through late March 2012, the SPX climbed relentlessly, showing an absence of normal price behavior heading into the anticipated cycle low timeframe.

Such an occurrence is very unusual (and very bullish), but what is NOT unusual is that following such a bullish cyclic event, the next cycle likely is considerably less bullish, and often times a mirror image of prior cycle. In other words, it is bearish for the entire timeframe into its next projected low.

If such a situation is developing, then the April 2 high in the SPX at 1422.38 and the relative weakness that has transpired since into Monday's low at 1358.79 so far represent the first 17 days of a potentially NET bearish 70-75 day cycle period into the projected first week of July.

With the big, more dominant, overarching 70-75 day cycle already 25% complete, and with the price action showing -3.2% during what otherwise should be the most bullish portion of the most influential of my "trading cycles," we could interpret the message of the cycle work as an impediment to -- as a headwind against-- rising prices generally for the next 8 or 9 weeks.

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