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S&P Decline Doesn't Yet Inflict Serious Technical Damage


Yes, the SPX is down 1.2% so far today- although we have to see if it actually can close down more than 1% for the first time in quite a while. From a very BIG picture perspective, let's notice that today's decline merely takes the index back to the top channel zone (1390/70). To inflict some serious damage to the overall chart pattern-- that will point the SPX towards a total retrace of the width of the channel (to 1270)-- the SPX has to first slice below the sharply rising 10 week MA at 1373, and then break below its prior pullback low at 1360.98 from Nov. 3rd. In addition, I will be watching the structure of the decline to see if it exhibits bearish form, which will provide us with important clues as to whether or not the June-Nov. uptrend remains dominant. For the time being, based on the enclosed chart structure, the bulls remain in control-- although they are taking a well-deserved breather after a near-vertical assault since Summer.
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