SPX Volatility Spikes After Dismal Economic Data
This is what we discussed last Wednesday, when the VIX was trading around 15.30:
The cash VIX gapped up this morning from 14.50 to 15.30, and since has pulled back to 15.07 to fill some of the gap area.
The action in the VIX today will be very important, especially if it can retain its gains, because this morning's action represents a potential upside breakaway gap in the aftermath of a completed 5-week rounded-base formation.
If the VIX can hold and close above 14.70, then the overall pattern argues for upside continuation towards 17.00 next. MJP 5/29/13
Purely from a chart perspective, today's upside breakout by the cash VIX-- above 15.00-15.65-- has met its next measured upside target at and above 17.00, which is a good excuse to take partial profits in the long VIX derivative instruments ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF (UVXY), and ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY).
However, from a more medium-term perspective, my work on the VIX points still higher to 19.00 at a minimum prior to the conclusion of the current upleg.