Below is what we discussed late yesterday. My analysis and outlook remain unchanged. MJP 11/11/14
I must admit, I was just a bit surprised that spot GOLD relinquished two-thirds of last week's recovery rally in a matter of a few hours.
The question now is whether or not a relief rally already is over, which would mean that today's weakness represents the start of a new bear leg?
Although I do think GOLD has another downleg ahead that will press it into the $1080/50 target zone, my work argues that the recovery rally from last Thursday’s low at $1131.85 to Friday’s high at $1179.17 is incomplete, and "needs" another bout of strength into the $1180-$1200 target zone prior to the resumption of dominant downtrend weakness.
Of course, if spot GOLD is unable to lift from the $1150 area, and instead plunges to new lows straight away, the action will speak for itself, and we should expect $1080/50 soon thereafter.
For now, however, I am looking for stability above $1145 to be followed by a run at Friday's high. MJP 11/10/14