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Strengthening Dollar vs Yen


Last Friday's spike low at 77.66 in the USD/YEN and the subsequent upmove to today's high at 78.95 have the right look of the conclusion of a deep correction of the Feb-Mar advance, followed by the start of a new upleg.

That said, however, to confirm that a new upleg has commenced, USD/YEN must hurdle and sustain above 79.50/80. Under the radar, apparently Japanese leaders are pushing Bank of Japan (BOJ) to aggressively expand monetary easing to help weaken the YEN (strengthen USD vs. YEN). My suspicion is that the BOJ also has asked the G-7 nations to help push the YEN lower if and when another round of intervention emerges.

Purely from a BIG picture technical perspective, all of the action for the last two years represents a major base pattern that should propel USD/YEN towards a test of intermediate term resistance at 84.50-85.00, followed by a multi-year upside follow-through that projects to 95-100 thereafter.

Last in the USD/YEN is 78.72.  Last in the ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) is 42.30/32.

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