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Technical Rally in TLTs


The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) continues to climb off of yest.'s new low of 87.45 (that occurred ahead of the 30 year auction results), which has triggered buy signals in my work (above 89.30/40) for upside continuation to 92.00 next. Has anything changed that has all of a sudden made longer term Treasury bonds more attractive FUNDAMENTALLY? For the time being, the upmove is mostly considered a sling-shot from a very oversold condition. HOWEVER, from the people I speak to (a small sample to be sure), business conditions are miserable on Main Street -- and confidence that they will improve continues to plummet. After all, where is all the stimulus money for all of the folks who cannot get access to Gov't project money?  My sense is that although THIS RALLY in the TLT's is technically based for now, it might morph into a much more powerful upmove as the "real" economic fundamentals show their true colors. If the dollar remains well-behaved, and Obama makes a subtle U-turn on some spending, watch the bond market rocket.

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