Below is what we discussed last Thursday. Since then, DXY has peered above key resistance at 97.80, but has not exactly accelerated to the upside (so far), which leads me to a very cautious conclusion: DXY must accelerate soon-- at least prior to a bout of weakness that breaks 97.10, which will trigger initial signals that the most recent rally in DXY from its 6/18 low at 93.56 is over-- and with it, just maybe the Dollar Index becomes much more vulnerable to another serious correction (off of the March-April highs). MJP 7/20/15
DXY is pushing up against key resistance at its May rally peak of 97.78, which, if hurdled and sustained, will greatly increase the likelihood of upside continuation towards a challenge of the Mar-Apr highs at 1.00.00 to 100.39.
Today’s action is important in that the Greek “yes” vote on austerity and the ECB response could push the Euro in one direction or the other (so far to the downside), and therefore has the potential to ignite a renewed exodus from the Euro currency (strengthening DXY).
If DXY is unable to sustain above 97.78, then some other factor aside from reaction to prospects for a Fed rate hike later this year, and in play. MJP 7/16/15