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The Dollar and Gold-The New Normal?


I am not sure what to make of the U.S. Dollar (DXY) vs Spot GOLD relationship recently, because it has certainly been counter-intuitive, not to mention counter-historical.

It is unusual to have such a strong Dollar concurrent with such a resilient Gold price.

That said, the relationship is not counter-seasonal, however.

When the Dollar has a pronounced direction heading into Dec, it usually continues into year end, while Dec usually resides within the seasonally-strong Nov-Mar time period for GOLD.

Be that as it may, the multi-month DXY uptrend is considerably more powerful than the budding GOLD recovery rally, at this point, GOLD must climb and sustain above heavy resistance at $1255/60 to trigger any meaningful upside traction.

Bottom Line: My suspicion is that the strong Dollar is approaching a peak in and around 90.00, and that an oversold, under-owned, gold market is ripe for a recovery rally at a minimum, and a surprisingly strong upmove, if, in fact, the Dollar is peaking.

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