Below is what we discussed last Thursday, the gist of which was that while my near-term work argues that a near-term low was established on Aug 24 at 1831.00, my intermediate-term work remains bearish unless and until 1970-2020 resistance is hurdled and sustained.
Last week's recovery rally peaked at 1992.75, and has since turned lower (today) into the 1914 area so far, which keeps intact my intermediate-term negativity.
A retest of last week's low at 1831 will be an important development for the determination of the dominant trend. MJP 9/01/15
The e-SPU has climbed 133.50 points and 7.3% since Monday morning at about this time.
The index will have recovered 50% of its entire May-Aug decline at 1983, and will challenge its former 2011-2015 trendline break at 2020.
A close above 2020 will mean that the index has clawed its way back above its 4-year uptrend.
From an intermediate-term perspective then, the e-SPU has its most meaningful challenges directly ahead-- between 1970 and 2020.
While my near-term work confirms the establishment of a significant low on a sustained climb above 1970, my intermediate-term work remains bearish until 2020 is hurdled and sustained- at which point the big picture price action will reveal a double-bottom corrective pattern at the Oct 15, 2015, low at 1813 and at the Aug 24, 2015, low at 1831. MJP 8/27/15