Heading towards the opening bell on this final day of the week, we always have to be mindful of the likely negative action of the VIX ahead of a weekend, especially when the S&P 500 is entrenched in a bull run, which ensures downside pressure on the VIX on Friday.
That said, the action in the e-SPU after yesterday's sharp upside reversal has not yet confirmed that the decline (correction) off of the July 3 high at 1978.25 is complete.
Until we get confirmation, we need to watch the VIX for clues that underlying investor/trader psychology has shifted, or is in the process of shifting.
From a near-term pattern perspective, the e-SPU must hurdle and sustain above key resistance between 1963.50 and 1968.25 to confirm that a correction has ended, and that a new upleg is in progress, that should test the all-time high.
Otherwise, my suspicion is that the mini-base carved-out in the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF (UVXY) during the past week is "warning us" that the market is exhausted.
Today's action in the VIX could be telling.