Treasuries May Be Ending Recovery Rally Phase

Once again perhaps we can derive a message from the action of the Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT), which today failed to climb above yesterday's 6-week recovery high at 92.81 in what I thought would be an extension of the "flight to safety" syndrome in an otherwise treacherous equity market. No such action has taken place thus far this morning. In fact, the TLTs have pivoted to the downside just below the 50% recovery resistance plateau of the prior March-June decline from 97.75 to 88.60- - which suggests that the TLTs just might be ending a recovery rally phase ahead of a resumption of weakness within the dominant downtrend that has been in force since the Jan 22 peak at 98.16 -- and which implies that higher U.S. interest rates will be forthcoming in the months ahead -- strong economy or not.