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Treasury ETF Downmove Nearing Completion?


Let's have a look at the pattern that continues to unfold in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Very interesting and tricky set-up in the TLTs now. Let's notice that it plunged to new lows at 100.85 for the decline off of the 8/25 high at 109.50 and in so doing has broken the Apr-Sep up trendline at 102.15 (for a second consecutive session).

While my pattern work argues that the downmove is nearing or at completion in the 101.00 area, the TLTs must reverse and climb back above the breach-point of the up-trendline -- at 102.15 -- to confirm that a significant corrective low has been established. Within the next couple of sessions, the TLTs had better start showing some life on the upside to confirm what my work is telling me could be a powerful upside recovery towards 106-plus.

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